The futures market functions as a risk hedge against price fluctuations in commodity coffee.

By Cafesba , 4 October 2025

The price of commodity coffee is set on the New York Mercantile Exchange for Arabica and on the London Mercantile Exchange for Robusta.
The standard price for Arabica is cents per pound (about 453g), and for Robusta it is dollars per ton (1,000kg).
In reality, coffee importers and producer-exporters often make contracts to purchase a certain amount of coffee of a specific quality over a specific period, such as the next three years.
This is called a forward contract.
However, coffee harvests vary in volume from year to year, changing supply and subjecting prices to the risk of rising or falling depending on the balance with demand.
After importing the green beans, importers sell them to another dealer, but if the price of coffee falls below the price at the time of purchase, they will incur a loss.
As a simple example, let's say you plan to purchase coffee beans for 100 yen per 100g one year from now, and make a profit by selling them to a roaster or distributor for 120 yen per 100g.
However, after a year has passed, if the price of coffee beans falls and you can no longer sell them for 100 yen per 100g, but can only sell them for 90 yen per 100g, you will incur a loss of 10 yen.
Since you had initially planned to sell them for 120 yen per 100g, your profit will be less than your planned 30 yen.
However, if you sell them on the futures market for 100 yen per 100g before the price falls, you will not make a profit, but you will eliminate your loss.
In this way, by using futures trading, you can prepare for the risk of price fluctuations and minimize your losses.
The futures market has a hedging function against the risk of price fluctuations in commodity coffee.

Following the coffee crisis of 1989, institutional investors began to appear in the futures market, not actually buying and selling coffee beans, but buying and selling them as a financial product in order to earn profits. Prices began to fluctuate not only due to actual demand, but also due to speculative money.
This situation itself could be said to be revitalizing the trading market.
However, the production costs on coffee farms do not necessarily fluctuate with the price of coffee beans, and when the market price falls, coffee farmers suffer losses.

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